Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
